by SCOTT VOAK

Our Stratified Market

Speak to two agents who work the North County Inland Corridor (Poway Unified School District, Scripps Ranch, and Mira Mesa) and you’re likely to get two different opinions on what the market is doing. Speak with three and you’re likely to get confused. Don’t blame them – the housing data coming out of the third quarter was definitely confusing if taken at face value.

For example: The average and median sales prices were both down year over year yet the price per square foot was up over the same period. This held over all types and sizes of homes.

The average price was down despite sales being up and inventory being down. Lower supply and higher demand should equal higher, not lower, prices (or I wasted my MBA).

While confusing on the surface, once you break down the market and look at the causes, it makes a lot of sense. Basically, our market has become very stratified. Here are a couple of examples:

  • Under $500k, sales were up 16% while active listings were down 51.4%, and new listings were down 29.3%.
  • Above $1.2M, sales were down 4.5%, active listings were up 9%, and new listings were up 8.9%.
  • Between $800k and $1.2M, we saw unusual activity: Sales down more than any other price range (-9.1%) and new listings up more than any other price range (+18.8%).

There is not space to go into a complete explanation (if you get my Monday Morning Coffee or monthly market updates, you have seen it – email me and I will include you in those pieces), but here is the quick explanation: Affordable housing is disappearing in our area, especially if you live in PUSD. In the middle range of our market ($600k – $1.2M), tech layoffs are having an effect both actually and psychologically. At the high end, employment issues are not as important as the overall business climate and investment markets.

The volatility in the stock market plus drops in oil (Canadian, Middle Eastern and Russian buyers) and the drop in the Asian stock markets have had an effect.

The question is, how should this information influence your plans?


Scott Voak, the top selling agent in 92127 since 2008 (data from SANDICOR MLS as of 6/1/2013) and the host of Real Estate Matters that airs Sunday mornings at 10 a.m. on AM 1450, provided this information. Email him to subscribe to his weekly real estate newsletter – Monday Morning Coffee.


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voak_logo_newScott Voak, MBA – Broker
CAL BRE #01153157
10815 Rancho Bernardo Rd #390
San Diego, CA 92127
(888) 311-6311 | Scott@VoakHomes.com