Real Estate Watch – Voak Homes
Turning on a Dime
Real estate markets tend to move slowly. Changes in inventory typically lead price changes by two to three months and then those changes don’t get recorded for 30 to 45 days, so if you’re paying attention, you can see the trends develop.
With The Fed signaling steady rates in January, my advice was to watch mortgage rates as falling mortgage rates could lead the market up again after we got past Tax Day. Well, I was off by a bit. When rates dropped in late March, activity spiked dramatically. We went from 4 to 5 people through an open house to 25 to 30 people and we started seeing multiple offers again, and it didn’t take long to develop.
It was a confluence of several events that triggered this switch. The first is the lowering of mortgage rates, the second was the return of our typical weather – people weren’t out looking at open houses in the rain, and the third was tax certainty. Once people had an idea of what their tax bill was, they felt more comfortable making a major investment like a home purchase.
Then, in mid-April we received an unexpected boost that I think will play out well for our market. Qualcomm and Apple settled their long-running lawsuit and Qualcomm celebrated. This was a huge cloud hanging over the company and once it lifted, I received calls from multiple clients who are Qualcomm employees saying they were ready to start looking at houses again. With the excellent schools we enjoy, our area is a magnet for tech workers and this development – coupled with lower rates – could help drive our prices back up to where they were before the mini-slump started in August.
Scott Voak, MBA – Broker
CalDRE #: 01153157
16710 Bernardo Center Dr.